Ammon, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

405
FXUS65 KPIH 231845
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1245 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm potential slowly increases through
  Friday with virga/light rain or sprinkles and gusty winds

- Better chance of rainfall is expected over the weekend

- Temperatures peak today/Wednesday before falling back to BELOW
  AVERAGE over the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The trend through Friday continues to be for enough mid level
moisture to kick of virga/light showers with gusty winds through
tonight, and similar conditions with the addition of
thunderstorms tomorrow through Friday. There is a 10% chance of
gusts over 35 mph across the South Hills/Albion Mountains and
southeast highlands with redevelopment later this evening and
overnight. As the next surge increases tomorrow, we will see an
increase in coverage especially over higher terrain for light
rain/virga and thunderstorms. We are mainly looking at isolated
storms, although coverage may briefly hit scattered tomorrow
afternoon north and east of US-93 in the central mountains.
There is a 30-70% chance of gusts over 35 mph where storms do
develop, or where we get outflow boundaries to kick off across
the Snake Plain north of Idaho Falls and the INL. The potential
is there for gusts up to 55 mph based on probability forecasts
for thunderstorm gust potential. Mid level moisture continues to
stream across the state tomorrow night into Thursday, with even
a small chance of overnight/morning thunderstorms...but not
enough for now to put in the forecast. We will see thunderstorm
potential pick up again Thursday afternoon, with isolated to
borderline scattered thunderstorm coverage across portions of
the central mountains, eastern and southeast highlands. Again,
expect gusty outflow winds and light rain/virga. We will need to
see how much clearing occurs during the afternoon for higher
potential of much stronger outflow winds. Heading into Friday,
we should get a break in the morning before showers and
thunderstorms increases across the eastern highlands and
central mountains. There will be a small increase in measurable
rainfall, but still expect most showers and storms to produce
light rain/virga and gust winds. Outside of showers and storms,
will see a small jump in overall wind tomorrow and Thursday,
with a huge jump on Friday. We MIGHT see strong enough winds for
headlines across portions of the Snake Plain, but cloud cover
may prevent full mixing of strong winds off the surface.

The core of the stronger low swings across the region over the
weekend. That will bring a huge drop in temperatures, to the
point that higher peaks may indeed see snow at times. Highs in
the valleys are projected to drop into the 50s and 60s! We will
be going for lack of rain to some places getting 0.50" or more
across higher elevations. As the low departs on Monday, expect
lingering precipitation across northern areas before drying out
Tuesday. We remain breezy at times during the period, but still
not thinking we would need wind-related headlines right now.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1137 MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Mostly quiet aviation conditions across the scope going into
early afternoon today. Mostly clear conditions will carry
through the period, but moisture increases enough Wednesday to
provide a little better chance of cu development and perhaps a
few gusty virga showers Wednesday afternoon. Winds are not
expected to get much more than 10 knots at all TAF sites. No
aviation impacts expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1216 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The trend through Friday is for more mid level moisture to
impact central and eastern Idaho. Lower levels will remain
pretty dry, so even though we may see some measurable and light
rainfall in places...expect a lot of what develops to produce
more virga or sprinkles than anything else. Through tonight, we
should see virga or sprinkles across higher elevations south of
the Snake River (427 and 413), and also across portions of the
central mountains (475 and 476). For tomorrow, light rain/virga
showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in the
afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm coverage will be isolated,
pushing scattered across closer to the Montana border for Zones
411, 475, and 476. For now, we will NOT issue any warnings since
the coverage is borderline. There is a 30-70% chance of gusts
over 35 mph, and gusts could peak at 45-55 mph based on the
latest probability forecasts for gust potential. We will also
need to watch for any outflow boundaries that spill out into the
Snake Plain or Magic Valley. Light showers/virga continues
tomorrow night and Thursday. It looks like gusts over 35 mph are
likely with stronger showers or storms. Coverage will be
isolated/borderline scattered, except across Zone 411 where
coverage will likely be scattered. We will re-evaluate later if
we need to issue Red Flag Warnings tomorrow and/or Thursday. By
Friday, a strong area low pressure moves inland. We will see an
increase in winds OUTSIDE of any showers and storms. We will see
gusts 20-40 mph areawide with locally higher gusts. That said,
humidities rapidly increase Friday and will keep us out of
critical fire weather conditions on that front...although it may
still be enough if conditions align for a start or holdover to
catch. Showers and storms will mainly develop across the central
mountains and along the Montana border (411). Although we are
still looking at mainly dry storms, there is a small uptick in
wetting rains in the central mountains. Cooler temperatures,
along with increasing wind and chance of wetting rains are
expected as the low swings across the state. The exception for
wetting rains will be 410 and 425 where 48 hour totals barely
reach 0.10". Widespread wetting rains for higher elevations are
expected with some totals exceeding 0.50" over both days. We are
evening see the potential for some LIGHT SNOW across highest
peaks and ridges going into Sunday with the core of the low
crosses the central mountains.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Keyes
AVIATION...TAX
FIRE WEATHER...Keyes